Environment Agency warns Devon and Cornwall could face drought in 2026 after exceptionally dry year

Despite the current wet weather we are experiencing, Devon and Cornwall could enter drought next year if the region experiences a very dry winter, the Environment Agency has warned in its newly released Drought Prospects Report. The assessment outlines how much rainfall is needed over the coming months to replenish severely depleted water levels after England recorded below-average rainfall for eight of the past ten months.

The report models three potential scenarios for March 2026, based on receiving 100%, 80% or 60% of expected winter rainfall. Currently, both counties are classed as “normal”. Under the 100% rainfall scenario, that status remains unchanged. However, if only 80% of typical rainfall is recorded, the region would move into “prolonged dry weather”. With just 60% of rainfall, Devon and Cornwall would officially enter drought, although the chance of such an extreme shortfall is estimated at just 2% to 6%.

The Agency warns that drought conditions can coexist with flooding, particularly flash floods triggered by heavy rain on parched soils. The Met Office has already noted a higher-than-usual likelihood of dry conditions from November to January, raising concerns about further strain on water supplies, potential hosepipe bans and impacts on agriculture.

Helen Wakeham, Director of Water at the Environment Agency, said: “There will be a drought next year, unless we get sustained rainfall through the winter. The severity of that drought will depend both on the weather and the actions we take over winter following this very dry year.

“The public have been brilliant in using a little less water this summer and following the restrictions in some parts of the country. I would urge people to continue to be as efficient as possible with their water use this winter - even if it is raining outside. Our wildlife, our rivers and our public water supplies depend on it.”

Water Minister, Emma Hardy, said: “I welcome the recent rainfall but the prolonged dry weather throughout this year continues to pose risks to public water supplies, farming, and the environment. We continue to work with the National Drought Group and water companies to maintain supplies for communities across the country.

“Climate change means we will face more frequent, severe droughts and flooding in the years ahead. That’s why this government is taking decisive action to secure our long-term water resilience, which includes building nine new reservoirs and investing in new pipes to reduce leakage.”

Will Lang, Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, added: "While it's not possible to definitively forecast weather for the next three months, the chances of a dry period are higher than normal.

“A more average three-month period for rainfall is still the most likely scenario. It's important to note that rainfall patterns in England can be variable, so while some may see more rainfall, others will see less, possibly giving limited relief from long-standing dry conditions."

Under the Agency’s 100% rainfall scenario, most of England would return to normal conditions by spring, with only parts of Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire remaining in prolonged dry weather. Water supplies, agricultural reservoirs and canal systems would largely recover, though some wildlife impacts would linger.

At 80% rainfall, drought conditions would spread from Dorset to East Yorkshire by March. Large areas of the South West, South East and East Anglia would move into prolonged dry weather, with only the North West returning to normal. Crop risks, reduced bird breeding success and increased wildfire hazards are among the anticipated impacts.

If rainfall falls to just 60% of average, all of England would be in drought by spring 2026, facing widespread hosepipe bans, reduced vegetable production, poor grass growth and possible permanent environmental damage.

The Environment Agency is urging the public to continue saving water over winter and is calling on water companies to reduce leakage, improve customer engagement and identify new supply sources. Farmers are being advised to consider more drought-tolerant crops, refill reservoirs early and explore water-sharing arrangements.

The Agency will continue enhanced monitoring and work closely with water companies to prepare for possible drought conditions next spring. It is also calling for increased long-term investment in drought forecasting and water research.

With reservoir stocks significantly below seasonal norms and large areas of England already in drought or prolonged dry weather, the Agency’s message is clear: water efficiency this winter will be essential in preventing a more severe crisis next year.